How to end Somalia chaos: David Henek

With each passing day, Somalia drifts further into an anarchy and fragmentation, with clans and warlords gaining control of various localities while the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) steadily weakens.

According to a July 2007 United Nations Security Council Report, “Somalia is literally awash with arms,” and key Somali actors, including the opposition, clans, and long-time warlords, continue to regroup and rearm. Until these actors can overcome their differences, the situation in Somalia will continue to deteriorate.

The TFG lacks the credibility, legitimacy, and capacity to govern effectively, but refuses to consider any new power arrangement that would broaden its governing base. Greater inclusiveness would increase the TFG’s popular support, but its leaders, drawn mostly from the Darod clan, appear confident that Ethiopia and the international community will keep them in power, if only because there are few alternatives.

Yet internal fissures and limited human and financial resources will continue to undermine the TFG, making it ever more unpopular as it fails to provide basic services to the Somali population.

A gradually consolidating opposition based in Asmara, Eritrea, and consisting of ousted former ICU members, TFG parliamentarians, and members of the Hawiye community, has stated that Ethiopian troops must withdraw from Somalia if the opposition is to  participate in the TFG’s proposed National Reconciliation Conference (NRC). This condition is unrealistic, since it practically assures the defeat of the TFG.

For its part, the TFG has recently announced that all Islamic leaders and opposition forces would be permitted to participate in the NRC. This move is to be applauded, but the TFG needs to go a step farther and affirm that it is willing to share power in governing Somalia with other actors, particularly former moderate Islamic Courts members and key representatives from the disgruntled Hawiye clan. Eritrea continues to fuel the escalation of the crisis and poses a considerable challenge to stopping the ongoing violence.

Ethiopia also faces a dilemma: its presence serves as a flashpoint for resentment and conflict, but it fears that a withdrawal would lead to the collapse of the TFG and the re-emergence of exactly what it was trying to prevent – an authority in Mogadishu that is hostile towards Ethiopia.

Fearing the emergence of a terrorist safe haven under the auspices of the Islamic Courts, the United States has maintained a strong and often murky alliance with Ethiopia.

 The United States must now find ways to distance itself from Ethiopia, get past its overweening focus on counterterrorism, and more effectively push the various spoilers to move forward in a unified direction.

Ultimately, the road to a Somali peace will be long and arduous, and can be traversed only if the Somali people are willing to effect real and positive change.

Nonetheless, the United States and the international community can play a positive role in Somalia by exercising smart and patient leadership.  Together, the United States and international community should work through the UN Security Council to play a supportive, but non-threatening role intended to persuade the divergent actors to cooperate with one another.

Without this, Somalia will continue to deteriorate, with potentially dire consequences for the entire Horn of Africa.

*Henek is a Research Assistant with the CSIS Africa Program and co-author of “Somalia’s Future: Options for Diplomacy, Assistance, and Peace Operations,” a CSIS Report published in February 2007.